Electoral Count Prediction: 378-160

Although I’m generally not one to post politically-oriented entries on this blog, I want to go on the record with a prediction of how today’s electoral votes will come down:

(R) Alabama – 9
(R) Alaska – 3
(R) Arizona – 10
(R) Arkansas – 6
(D) California – 55
(D) Colorado – 9
(D) Connecticut – 7
(D) Delaware – 3
(D) Florida – 27
(R) Georgia – 15
(D) Hawaii – 4
(R) Idaho – 4
(D) Illinois – 21
(D) Indiana – 11
(D) Iowa – 7
(R) Kansas – 6
(R) Kentucky – 8
(R) Louisiana – 9
(D) Maine – 4
(D) Maryland – 10
(D) Massachusetts – 12
(D) Michigan – 17
(D) Minnesota – 10
(R) Mississippi – 6
(D) Missouri – 11
(R) Montana – 3
(R) Nebraska – 5
(D) Nevada – 5
(D) New Hampshire – 4
(D) New Jersey – 15
(D) New Mexico – 5
(D) New York – 31
(D) North Carolina – 15
(D) North Dakota – 3
(D) Ohio – 20
(R) Oklahoma – 7
(D) Oregon – 7
(D) Pennsylvania – 21
(D) Rhode Island – 4
(R) South Carolina – 8
(R) South Dakota – 3
(R) Tennessee – 11
(R) Texas – 34
(R) Utah – 5
(D) Vermont – 3
(D) Virginia – 13
(D) Washington – 11
(D) Washington D.C. – 3
(R) West Virginia – 5
(D) Wisconsin – 10
(R) Wyoming – 3

Final Tally

Barack Obama: 378
John McCain: 160

I also think the race will be officially called by the networks within ten minutes of 10:15pm Eastern. This is just my opinion as an observer, of course. Best of luck to both candidates.

UPDATE: Ok, it looks like they just called North Carolina for Barry O., so the final tally is 364-173. Looks like I only got Missouri and North Dakota wrong. And honestly, the only reason I picked Missouri for Obama was that I bought into the hype about how Missouri has picked every single election except for one. Make that two now! :)
20 comments on “Electoral Count Prediction: 378-160”. Leave your own?
  1. Chris says:

    I am watching from the UK with great excitement. Such an important day for all of us. Let’s hope America gets a more enlightened president and one it can be proud of.

  2. Phil wilks says:

    I’m also watching from the UK, hoping to stay up all night until the result is announced. I hope your predictions are right Mike!

  3. John B says:

    I’ll be watching in Canada, where CTV’s live election coverage, starting at 10PM, will not be a broadcast of one of the major American news networks, but will be Jon Stewart & Stephen Colbert. This should be fun! (And also, may the right guy win).

  4. Dave Metcalf says:

    Hopefully our UK friends won’t have to see another newspaper cover like this.

  5. Julian says:

    Watching with some friends from Germany!

  6. Patrick Shaw says:

    Watching from Dreamforce, the Salesforce Convention – we have voting booths!

  7. Not Dave says:

    Uh yeah, Dave. I’d say that’s pretty unlikely they’ll see another newspaper cover like that because Bush is not running for president.

  8. Paul says:

    Actually, the networks have agreed not to call it until one candidate reaches 270 electoral votes. I’m sure CNN or other networks will call it way before then, though.

  9. Mike D. says:

    Paul: That’s what I mean. The networks will call it around 10:15pm Eastern, which is when I think the 270 mark will be passed.

  10. Chris says:

    As an outside observer… People seem to be projecting their individual hopes for change on Obama. How on earth he is going to satisfy all those hopes remains to be seen. The expectations on him are enormous.

  11. Chris says:

    Mike, Whoever wins…when do they actually take over as president?

  12. Brade says:

    I’m gonna sit back with my free chicken strips from Chick-fil-A earned by voting and take in the proceedings. Honestly, both guys are much better than what we’ve had, so for our international friends, don’t be too alarmed if McCain pulls the upset.

  13. Mike D. says:

    Chris: I believe the official changeover date is January 21st.

  14. Dave Metcalf says:

    Mike – You have to call someone over at MSNBC and do something about those graphics. Specifically, the column on the right is too busy with the state, pictures, names, sometimes percentage numbers, sometimes vote counts, difference, poll closing times with the state names under different state graphics. OMG!

    I can’t listen to the commentary. It may be worse than the news crawl.

  15. James says:

    10:05 Texas time – and Fox is calling Obama as being our next president. (Might have been earlier – my shock had me stuck watching the TV for a bit there).
    I still think 10:15 *Western* is too early for it to honestly called – let alone Eastern.

  16. Mike D. says:

    James: Ok, the call was made public officially at 8pm Pacific, 11pm Eastern, but internally, it was made about 20 minutes earlier, so I was about 15-35 minutes early on my estimate, depending on which you count. We’ll see where the vote ends up now…

  17. Mike D. says:

    338 right now, looking like it’s potentially going to be 367. If Missouri ends up going to Obama, that’s 378 on the nose. Probably won’t happen though.

  18. Chris says:

    Wow. Fabulous result! A change is gonna come..

  19. Lee says:

    I believe the final result was Obama 365, McCain 162, Ties 11.

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